STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/2
NFL & NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL & CFB *****
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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*** LUCKY #13 ***
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Week 13 of NFL betting begins Thursday night with the eight-point favorite Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Houston Texans. Philly enters off an outright loss in Chicago last week, their first since Mike Vick returned to the starting lineup. Meanwhile, Houston snapped a five-game losing streak on Sunday with a 20-0 shutout of division rival Tennessee, arguably the Texans best performance since a Week One victory over the Colts.
Unfortunately for underdog bettors, Houston is just 7-20 ATS all-time when off a home victory. However, Eagles head coach Andy Reid has never had much luck against the AFC South, going 2-9 ATS, including ATS losses to Indianapolis and Tennessee earlier this year.
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• • • • • STAN THE MAN CONTINUES TO ROLL! • • • • •
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Stan has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 60-20-4 (75.0%) ATS Run, along with his impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) mark for the season, in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered the cash in Thirty-Nine of the last Forty-Two, and in Seventy-Three of the last Seventy-Seven Weeks, Dating back to Last Season!
Jump Starting the Week Monday - Stan ‘The Man Continued to 'Sizzle' on the Hardwood Cashing Once Again with his *4-Star selection on Denver/Golden State Under 220.5. Right here on these pages, Stan told us all - "Don't even think about making a move on tonight’s NBA card until you learned of a ‘Dynamite Super Situation’ inside one game, and that it was supported by an Amazing Winning Angle since 1996."
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. 28-5 since 1996, (84.8%, +22.5 units).
--Result: Carmelo Anthony rose to the occasion with 39 points, nine rebounds and five assists, as Denver downed Golden State, 106-89, at ORACLE Arena. Al Harrington added 19 points and eight rebounds off the bench, while Arron Afflalo donated 15 points and nine rebounds and Ty Lawson contributed 14 points for Denver, which has won three of four overall.
Tuesday as Promised - 'The Man Delivered with his *4-Star ‘Fan Appreciation Key Play’ (New York/Charlotte Over 205.5) that was supported by this powerful Super Situational System: PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team. 29-6 since 1996, (82.8%, +22.4 units).
--Result: Toney Douglas poured in 22 points off the bench and all five starters scored in double figures as New York held off Charlotte, 110-107, at Madison Square Garden in the first of a home-and-home set. Amare Stoudemire scored 17 points while Raymond Felton supplied 16 points and nine assists against his former team for the Knicks, who have won a season-best four in a row following a six-game slide. Extending 'The Man's record on the hardwood to 17-3, (85.0%) with his last nineteen top rated selections!
After taking a well deserved night off Wednesday - Stan 'The Man Continued his ‘INCREDIBLE’ Winning Streak on the Gridiron, Nailing his Hugh *5-Star ‘Late Information Selection’ with the Under (the posted total of 44) in the Cincinnati/NY Jets match-up at the New Meadowlands Stadium, on the NFL Network Thursday night.
--Result: Brad Smith scored on a 53-yard run and an 89-yard kickoff return, providing the spark for the New York Jets in their 26-10 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Smith also caught a pass for 23 yards for the Jets who have won four in a row and kept pace with New England for first place in the AFC East. Improving Stan's NFL mark to 22-8-2, (73.3%) on the 2010 season.
Stan's RED~HOT run in NCAA College Football just keeps getting Hotter! Fresh off his ‘SPECTACULAR’ 8-1 roll in side Selections (88.8%) right here in last Saturday's (11/20) Stat/Systems Report - “The Man cashed yet another CFB Huge Top *5-Star Release on Friday's card, with Toledo minus the four points at the Glass Bowl.
--Result: Terrance Owens threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns as the Toledo Rockets posted a solid 42-31 win over the Central Michigan Chippewas in a Mid-American Conference bout. Owens completed 24-of-32 passes for the Rockets as they won their second straight and the fifth in the last six outings.
Stan ‘The Man didn't Stop There - As he came thru in Fine Fashion with his *5-Star - 'AWESOME ANGLE OF THE DAY' - (Nevada +14.5), which told us to: PLAY ON - Any college conference home dog that was favored in each of their last seven games versus a .700 or greater opponent off a win of 17 > points. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 15-2-1 (88.2%).
--Result: The No. 19 Nevada Wolf Pack rallied from a 17-point halftime deficit, survived a missed chip shot from Kyle Brotzman at the end of regulation and miraculously pulled off the biggest win in program history, 34-31, on Anthony Martinez's 34-yard field goal in overtime.
Kicking off the afternoon Saturday, Stan Delivered his 11th Consecutive Winning Week in NCAA College Football, going 6-1-1, (85.7%) on the week! Getting things started right here in our Stat/Systems Report, Stan cashed with his 100% 'CFB SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK' with South Florida (plus the 12.5-points) versus Miami-Florida.
Stan wrote - One of my favorite betting theories involves backing Big East teams in non-conference play, where they are almost always looking to stamp their BCS credentials. This is especially true during the second-half of the season when they are out to impress the bowl scouts. Here is what we want to do: PLAY ON - Any Big East college football team on the non-conference road from Game Six out.
These ‘Beasts’ respond with aplomb, going 60-31-2 ATS since the inception of the league in this role. Send them out with a decent defense, one that allows 24.5 or less points per game and they become a 45-17-1 ATS proposition. These same defensively staunch ‘Beasts’ really take it out on the road against .700 or less non-conference opposition, going 29-8 ATS (78.3%), including 16-3 ATS when they are off a win of more than three points.
SUBSET: If our PLAY ON' team is off a win of more than three points and allows 24.5 or less ppg and is facing a .700 or less non-conference opponent that was not a double-digit favorite and did not cover the spread by six or more points in its last game. ATS W-L Record Since 1998: 14-0.
FYI: "There’s a chance Miami QB Jacory Harris will be healed enough from recent injuries to make a return but the Hurricanes’ feeble 1-7 ATS record in Last Home Games doesn’t exactly inspire confidence!"
--Result: Demetris Murray's one-yard touchdown run in overtime lifted the South Florida Bulls over the Miami-Florida Hurricanes, 23-20, in a non-conference clash. Moise Plancher ran for 103 yards for South Florida which got two touchdown runs from Murray to move to 9-0 all-time in overtime games.
Other Winning Tickets on Saturday's Card Included: 5* SAN DIEGO ST -24 - (86.5%)... 5* WISCONSIN -23 - (86.5%)... 5* HAWAII/NEW MEXICO ST OVER 29 (1rst Half) - (91.2%)... Extending “The Man’s 2010 CFB record to 38-12-2, 76.0%!
Wrapping up the week which saw us go 9-1-1, (90.0%) overall, Stan and the staff here at Stat/Systems Sports would like to take the time once again to thank all of you that called and signed up for our ‘Thanksging Weekend Special’, and for all your kind and wonderful E-Mails.
As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today, you'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
HOUSTON @ PHILADELPHIA
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT Line: -8, O/U 51
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The Houston Texans are showing they're still willing to fight, both literally and figuratively, for a chance at an elusive first-ever playoff berth in franchise history. The AFC South contenders continue that quest with Thursday's visit to Lincoln Financial Field, where a Philadelphia Eagles team attempting to cement its own postseason hopes lies in wait for a Week 13 interconference bout between two high-powered opponents.
The Texans had just about fallen out of contention in the division race after losing four straight games to begin November, but bounced back with a highly- charged effort to take down the spiraling Tennessee Titans last Sunday at Reliant Stadium. The resounding 20-0 victory, coupled with Week 12 defeats by AFC South front-runners Jacksonville and Indianapolis moved Houston within a single game of the Jaguars and Colts for the top spot.
Houston took advantage of a depleted Tennessee offense directed by over-his- head rookie quarterback Rusty Smith to record its first shutout since 2004, but the defense's surprisingly sturdy effort was overshadowed by a nasty fourth-quarter brawl between Texans star wide receiver Andre Johnson and Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan that saw both players tossed from the contest. Neither Johnson nor Finnegan were suspended for the ugly incident, with each receiving $25,000 fines from the NFL office.
The verdict brought a sigh of relief to the Texans, who'll have one of their best weapons on the field for a pivotal game against the NFC East co-leading Eagles. Lost in the Johnson/Finnegan scuffle was the performance of a maligned Houston defense that entered last week's tilt ranked 31st in the league in yards allowed and dead last against the pass. The unit limited the punchless Titans to a paltry 162 total yards and nine first downs while bottling up All-Pro running back Chris Johnson, who mustered a career-low five rushing yards on seven attempts. Duplicating that display figures to be a tall task, however, against a dangerous Philadelphia contingent that's second in the NFL in both total offense and points scored.
The Eagles have put up 26 points or more in all six games in which revitalized quarterback Michael Vick has started and finished this season, while posting a 5-1 record in those outings. The lone blemish occurred this past Sunday, however, when Philadelphia was outdueled by surging Chicago in a 31-26 setback that ended the Eagles' three- game winning streak. The usually-potent offense was beset by a number of critical breakdowns in the Windy City, managing just one touchdown in five red-zone trips and Vick throwing a costly interception (his first of the season) near the goal line that led to a key touchdown for the Bears.
Philadelphia's defense also wasn't up to par, surrendering four scoring passes to Chicago signal-caller Jay Cutler and 117 rushing yards to running back Matt Forte on only 14 carries. The Eagles may be in for a tough time on that side of the ball again on Thursday, with the Texans bringing the NFL's leading ground-gainer in Arian Foster along with the league's seventh-rated offense in terms of total yardage. Sunday's loss placed Philadelphia back into a first-place tie with the New York Giants, a 24-20 victor over Jacksonville in Week 12, in the NFC East standings.
• SERIES HISTORY
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The Eagles won their only two all-time meetings with the Texans, downing Houston on the road in the 2006 regular season opener (24-10) and at home (35-17) during the 2002 regular season. Houston-based NFL teams are 0-4 in Philadelphia all-time, including a 0-3 mark there by the Oilers. Eagles head coach Andy Reid is 2-0 in his career against the Texans, while Houston's Gary Kubiak is 0-1 against both Reid and the Eagles as a head man.
• WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
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While Johnson's contributions and presence cannot be minimized, the main driving force behind a balanced Houston offense that's averaging 367.7 total yards per game has been Foster (1147 rushing yards, 48 receptions, 13 total TD), an overlooked MVP candidate who's accounted for nearly 40 percent of the team's output this season. The undrafted second-year pro is fresh off a monster day against the Titans in which he rushed for 143 yards on 30 carries and added a game-high 75 receiving yards on nine catches as one of the primary targets for steady quarterback Matt Schaub (2752 passing yards, 15 TD, 7 INT).
Johnson (65 receptions, 869 yards, 5 TD) had nine grabs as well prior his premature exit, and the four-time Pro Bowl honoree's ability to stretch the field and draw added attention from the defense helps open the field for complementary pieces such as wideout Kevin Walter (31 receptions, 4 TD) and tight end Joel Dreessen (22 receptions, 4 TD), who's emerged as a reliable fill-in for the injured Owen Daniels. Schaub enters Thursday's matchups on a three-game streak without a turnover, and the Philadelphia-area native has been intercepted just twice in five road tests this season.
The Eagles head into this week's clash with one big question mark in the secondary, with top-flight cornerback Asante Samuel's (23 tackles, 7 INT, 12 PD) status likely not to be determined until game time due to a sprained left knee that caused him to sit out against Chicago. Without the NFL's interception leader, Philadelphia was burned for 247 yards and four touchdowns by Cutler, and there's no other coverman on the roster you can deem capable of go going one-on-one with Johnson with much confidence.
End Juqua Parker (15 tackles, 5 sacks), the team's second-leading sacker, is also iffy with a hip flexor, though rookie replacement Brandon Graham (12 tackles, 3 sacks) took down Cutler once last week and the defense did come up with four sacks total on the day, including a pair from standout rush end Trent Cole (49 tackles, 9 sacks). The Eagles had been playing very well against the run up until last Sunday, with the midseason insertions of tackle Antonio Dixon (23 tackles, 2 sacks) and strongside linebacker Moise Fokou (28 tackles) into starting roles helping shore up an area that was a trouble spot early on. Philadelphia has yielded a scant 81.9 rushing yards per game over its past seven contests.
• WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
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Philadelphia's offense is among the most explosive in all of football, having produced a league-best 15 plays of 40 or more yards through the first 11 games, and boasts two premier home-run threats in flashy wide receiver DeSean Jackson (35 receptions, 678 yards, 5 TD) and running back LeSean McCoy (779 rushing yards, 59 receptions, 7 total TD). It's also been quite efficient, with Vick (1941 passing yards, 13 TD, 1 INT) having turned the ball over just twice thus far while completing a career-best 63.4 percent of his passes during his impressive comeback campaign.
The multi-faceted quarterback is still a major threat with his legs as well, topping all NFL signal-callers in both rushing yards (419) and touchdowns (5), and his scrambling skills are part of the reason why the Eagles have compiled the third-most yards on the ground (146.6 ypg) in 2010. McCoy's done his part as well, with the versatile sophomore averaging five yards per carry in addition to leading all running backs in receptions. The speedy Jackson serves as the big-play element to Reid's diverse pass attack, with underrated wideout Jeremy Maclin (51 receptions, 752 yards, 8 TD), sure-handed slotman Jason Avant (41 tackles, 1 TD) and McCoy utilized as Vick's main options underneath. Pass protection has been an issue at times, with the front line having allowed 32 sacks on the year.
The Eagles' deep corps of receivers will be working against a young and vulnerable Houston secondary that's been routinely toasted by enemy quarterbacks this season. The Texans have permitted a league-worst 25 touchdown passes and a troubling 286.2 yards per game via the air (31st overall), and last week's shutout marked the first time in 2010 the team gave up fewer than 24 points. On the positive side, second-year cornerback Glover Quin (59 tackles, 3 INT, 11 PD) set a club single-game record with three interceptions of the Titans' Smith in Week 12, while Pro Bowl end Mario Williams (26 tackles, 8.5 sacks) is an elite pass rusher who's registered three sacks over the past two weeks.
While the defense has been shoddy against the pass, Houston can be awfully tough to run on, as Tennessee found out by gaining an anemic 24 yards on the ground on 12 attempts last Sunday. Outside linebacker and 2009 NFL Defensive Rookie of the year Brian Cushing (47 tackles) and physical strong safety Bernard Pollard (85 tackles) spearhead a group that comes in ranked ninth in the league in rushing defense (100.2 ypg) and has allowed 3.9 yards per carry.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Eagles fly home off a disappointing loss in the Windy City to host the Texans who are fresh off a surprising shutout win, just the second such whitewash victory in franchise history. Given the fact Houston lost straight up as a 9.5-point favorite in the following encounter the only other time they tossed a goose egg, we’re not about to do the two-step with them this week. Especially knowing they are just 1-6 ATS all-time in games after surrendering 7 or fewer points when facing an opponent off a loss.
Meanwhile, Andy has been dandy in scuffles off a SU favorite loss, going 12-3 ATS when taking on a sub .500 foe. "With the Eagles bruised and battered, and Gary Kubiak a ridiculous 0-9 ATS in confrontations against opponents that are off a SU and ATS road loss, it looks like a one-way mugging on the streets of Philadelphia tonight!"
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Philadelphia by 9.5; O/U 48.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Philadelphia -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Philadelphia -9.73
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 24.7, OPPONENT 18.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 32-13 ATS (+17.5 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 24.6, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in road games after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 17.3, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 65-39 UNDER (+22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 21.1, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 48-25 UNDER (+20.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 19.8, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 15-2 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 21.7, OPPONENT 12.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 14.9, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 32-14 against the 1rst half line (+16.5 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 11.6, OPPONENT 8.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 26-9 against the 1rst half line (+15.9 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 14.1, OPPONENT 7.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 8.3, OPPONENT 15.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 27-11 OVER (+14.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games in December games since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 13.7, OPPONENT 8.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 16-3 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 14.4, OPPONENT 11.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 15.6, OPPONENT 13.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games.
(36-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +27.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.5, Opponent 4.8 (Average first half point differential = +9.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (67-55).
--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is 25 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - after playing their last game on the road, in December games.
(31-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 17.9, Opponent 15.1 (Total first half points scored = 33)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (33-16).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13.
(28-8 since 1983.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.5
The average score in these games was: Team 23.6, Opponent 22.3 (Total points scored = 45.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (54.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (25-7).
